Raiders vs Saints Prediction: Week 17 NFL Preview

The Week 17 NFL matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the New Orleans Saints promises to be an intriguing clash as both teams aim to finish their disappointing seasons on a high note. Scheduled for Sunday at 1:00 PM ET at the iconic Caesars Superdome, this game brings together two teams with contrasting fortunes in the 2024 season.

Current Team Records

• New Orleans Saints: 5-10 overall, 3-5 at home
• Las Vegas Raiders: 3-12 overall, 1-7 on the road

The Saints enter this game on the heels of a 34-0 blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers, while the Raiders look to build on a 19-14 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars. With key injuries impacting New Orleans, including the absence of quarterback Derek Carr, running back Alvin Kamara, and wide receiver Chris Olave, the Saints are in a challenging position.

Betting Odds

As per the latest betting lines:

• Spread: Raiders -2
• Over/Under: 37.5 Points
• Moneyline: Raiders -129, Saints +109

This represents a significant four-point swing in favor of the Raiders since the opening line.

Why the Raiders Can Cover

The Raiders have shown resilience in their recent performances, with Aidan O'Connell stepping in as the starting quarterback and delivering a solid performance, completing 24 of 38 passes for 257 yards with no turnovers against Jacksonville. Their defense also stepped up, forcing two turnovers and limiting the Jaguars to 308 total yards. One of the players to watch is Brock Bowers, the rookie tight end, who has had a standout season with 101 catches for 1,067 yards and four touchdowns. If he secures just 10 more yards in this matchup, he will break Mike Ditka's rookie tight end receiving yards record.

Why the Saints Can Cover

Despite their struggles, the Saints have played better at home. They still have a chance to inject some life into their offense with the possible return of Chris Olave from injured reserve. His presence could be pivotal, especially since the Saints have lost three home games by a combined 11 points. Under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, they continue to compete tough, looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Model Predictions and Insights

According to a simulation model that has analyzed this game 10,000 times, the Raiders are projected to win with a 60% probability, while the Saints sit at 40%. The predicted final score is Raiders 19, Saints 17. Furthermore, the model suggests a 52% chance for the Raiders to cover the spread with the 37.5-point over/under showing a 50-50 probability of hitting.

Expected Players and Scoring

• Raiders:

  • Projected Passing Leader: Aidan O'Connell
  • Top Receiving Target: Brock Bowers
  • Primary Rusher: Alexander Mattison

• Saints:

  • Projected Passing Leader: Spencer Rattler
  • Top Receiving Target: Marquez Valdes-Scantling
  • Primary Rusher: Kendre Miller

Final Thoughts

Although both teams are facing significant challenges, the Raiders seem to be in a better position heading into this matchup. The combination of improved play from their quarterback and standout performance from rookie talent places them in a favorable position to clinch a victory. Check back for further updates and feel confident in making your betting choices with this comprehensive analysis of the Raiders vs Saints prediction for NFL Week 17.